Mercedes Labelle

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To hit a target, you need the tools and know-how. The same can be said when planning for population growth – you need data and the knowledge of how to reach that goal. The latest series by Northern Policy Institute and Réseau du Nord, Taking Aim: French-Speaking Migration Targets by Mercedes Labelle is the tool for the job. 

This series of papers projects how many future French-speaking and Francophone migrants should be targeted to maintain the current levels in Northern Ontario for these two groups. If Northern Ontario communities do not at least maintain the current share of French-speakers and Francophones in the core working-age population (through both migration and retention), there may not be an adequate supply of workers to provide services in French in the coming years. The Taking Aim series breaks down the needed in-migration targets on a regional basis, featuring 16 papers available in English and French.

Access the series below


Greater Sudbury, 2016-2026

This paper estimates how many future French-speaking and Francophone migrants should be targeted for the City of Greater Sudbury, as a proportion of total future migrants, in order to maintain the current proportions of French speakers and Francophones in the city’s core working-age population. Establishing a baseline target for French-speaking and Francophone migration allows the labour force to maintain its current equilibrium, meaning the ratio of working-age French-speakers and Francophones will remain consistent as a share of the total population.

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North Bay, 2016 to 2026

This paper estimates how many future French-speaking and Francophone migrants should be targeted for the City of North Bay, as a proportion of total future migrants, in order to maintain the current proportions of French speakers and Francophones in the city’s core working-age population. Establishing a baseline target for French-speaking and Francophone migration allows the labour force to maintain its current equilibrium, meaning the ratio of working-age French speakers and Francophones will remain consistent as a share of the total population.

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Sault Ste. Marie, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Sault Ste. Marie, 5.8 to 6.3 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 851 to 1,039 people. On the other hand, 5.2 to 5.5 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 812 to 865 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require, or benefit from, French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026

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Thunder Bay, 2016-2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Thunder Bay, 3.3 to 3.5 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 774 to 863 people. On the other hand, 3.6 to 3.7 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 875 to 901 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Timmins, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that in order to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Timmins, 47.8 to 48.9 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 3,716 to 4,712 people. On the other hand, 41.1 to 41.5 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 3,231 to 3,961 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require, or benefit from, French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically-qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Algoma, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Algoma, 9.3 to 9.7 per cent of future in migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 1,412 to 1,658. On the other hand, 10.0 to 10.5 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 1,592 to 1,706 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Cochrane, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Cochrane, 57.6 to 57.8 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 5,589 to 5,766. On the other hand, 54.5 to 54.7 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 5,284 to 5,454 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Kenora, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Kenora, 4.0 to 4.1 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 412 to 442. On the other hand, 3.5 to 3.6 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 376 to 383 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Manitoulin, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Manitoulin, 7.2 to 7.6 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 198 to 227. On the other hand, 3.8 to 4.1 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 107 to 120 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Nipissing, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Nipissing, 33.2 to 33.3 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 5,135 to 5,175. On the other hand, 29.2 to 29.4 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 4,546 to 4,534 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Parry Sound, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Parry Sound, 6.3 to 6.5 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 705 to 815. On the other hand, 3.9 to 4.0 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 447 to 489 required in-migrants. 

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Rainy River, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that, in order to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Rainy River, 3.0 to 3.1 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 83 to 97. On the other hand, 2.9 to 3.2 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 88 to 89 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Sudbury, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Sudbury, 34.0 to 34.1 percent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 1,577 to 1,643. On the other hand, 28.2 to 28.5 percent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain their current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 1,320 to 1,363 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require, or benefit from, French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically-qualified people to employ into 2026.

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Timiskaming, 2016 to 2026

When analyzing the core working-age population, this paper estimates that to maintain the 2016 proportion of French speakers in Timiskaming, 34.0 to 34.1 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be French speakers, a range of 1,552 to 1,988. On the other hand, 27.8 to 29.3 per cent of future in-migrants would need to be Francophones to maintain its current proportion of the core working-age population, which represents 1,339 to 1,619 required in-migrants. Thus, following the targets, occupations that currently require or benefit from French language skills will have a sufficient pool of linguistically qualified people to employ into 2026.

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This report was created as part of the Northern Analyst Collective. This project allows members to “time share” a professional policy analyst. By merging our collective resources we can ensure that the smallest municipality or local charity can access high-end skills at an affordable cost. For more information on the program click here.

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