Housing Needs in an Uncertain Future
Housing Needs in an Uncertain Future
October 2025 | William Dunstan
The communities of Terrace Bay and Schreiber – which are referred to together in this commentary as the “Terrace Bay region” – have faced an uncertain economic future since the AV Terrace Bay pulp mill was shut down in January 2024. This economic uncertainty adds to the challenge of planning and preparing for the region's future housing needs. This commentary projects the Terrace Bay region's housing needs over 15 years, updating an earlier analysis completed in 2014. Between 2023 – the most recent year with available data and the year preceding the mill shutdown – and 2038, population growth in the Terrace Bay region will likely range from an increase of less than 50 people to a decrease of nearly 200 people. In a variety of realistic scenarios, the demographic ages 65 and over will likely grow by more than 100 people. This will further increase the existing demand for seniors' housing in the region. Whether the Terrace Bay region will have enough housing units to meet demand in 2038 will depend on the future of the mill and future trends in average household size. In any event, developing a seniors' housing complex in Terrace Bay or Schreiber should add enough housing units to avoid a potential shortage.
Related Research:
Invest Now: An Action Plan for Seniors Living in and around Terrace Bay
Insight Series: Welcome to Your New Home